Istrazivanja i projektovanja za privreduJournal of Applied Engineering Science

OPTIMIZATION FORECASTING USING BACK-PROPAGATION ALGORITHM


DOI: 10.5937/jaes0-30175 
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0
Creative Commons License

Volume 19 article 889 pages: 1083-1089

Budi Raharjo
Universitas STEKOM, Department of Information System, Semarang, Indonesia

Nurul Farida
Universitas Islam Balitar, Department of Management, Blitar, Indonesia

Purwo Subekti
Universitas Pasir Pengaraian, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Riau , Indonesia

Rima Herlina S Siburian
Universitas Papua, Department of Forestry, Papua Barat, Indonesia

Putu Doddy Heka Ardana
Universitas Ngurah Rai, Department of Civil Engineering, Denpasar, Indonesia

Robbi Rahim*
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Manajemen Sukma, Medan, Indonesia

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the back-propagation model by optimizing the parameters for the prediction of broiler chicken populations by provinces in Indonesia. Parameter optimization is changing the learning rate (lr) of the backpropagation prediction model. Data sourced from the Directorate General of Animal Husbandry and Animal Health processed by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data is the population of Broiler Chickens from 2017 to 2019 (34 records). The analysis process uses the help of RapidMiner software. Data is divided into 2 parts, namely training data (2017-2018) and testing data (2018-2019). The backpropagation model used is 1-2-1; 1-25-1 and 1-45-1 with a learning rate (0.1; 0.01; 0.001; 0.2; 0.02; 0.002; 0.3; 0.03; 0.003). From the three models tested, the 1-45-1 model (lr = 0.3) is the best model with Root Mean Squared Error = 0.028 in the training data. With this model, the prediction results obtained with an accuracy value of 91% and Root Mean Squared Error = 0.00555 in the testing data.

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