# Istrazivanja i projektovanja za privreduJournal of Applied Engineering Science

PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR ASSESSing ACCIDENT RATES

DOI: 10.5937/jaes0-42942
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0

Volume 21 article 1126 pages: 846-852

Anastasia Shevtsova*
Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shukhov, Belgorod, Russia

Alexander Novikov
Orel State University named after I.S. Turgenev, Orel, Russia

Sergey Evtyukov
Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Alexey Marusin
Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Saint Petersburg, Russia

When working with accident rates, a specialist has to spend quite a lot of time to establish the main places of accidents, certain conditions in which they occurred, which is extremely necessary when determining measures aimed at reducing road accidents. As a result of the research, the authors processed a large amount of data - accident rates for 2015-2021, as a result of which certain dependencies were established between the considered indicators in relative data, which made it possible to develop a probabilistic model for calculating the necessary data with the ability to determine the required conditions. Based on the results obtained, the authors developed an algorithm, according to which procedures were determined when working with accident rates and an assessment of efficiency based on the calculation of the error was carried out. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the developed probabilistic model and algorithm are effective, in view of the minimum error.

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This work was realized in the framework of the Program “Priority 2030” on the base of the Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shukhov. The work was realized using equipment of High Technology Center at BSTU named after V.G. Shukhov.

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